Central Bank experts warned of a new shock to the Russian economy

Central Bank experts warned of a new shock for the Russian economy

Analysts explained how price restrictions differ from “normal” sanctions.

Experts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said that the Russian economy, which successfully overcame sanctions in the second quarter of this year and adapted to partial mobilization, may experience a new shock due to the introduction of the EU and the US oil price ceiling and an embargo on fuel supplies by sea.

According to RBC, the analysis is published on the website of the Bank of Russia, while it is clarified that the conclusions of experts may differ from the official position of the Bank of Russia.

Experts believe that the recent anti-Russian measures may lead to the fact that the level of business activity will fall, if we look at the long-term perspective. They consider these sanctions to be among the main “new economic shocks”.

If disruptions in work due to sanctions can be overcome over time, be it new logical chains or a decrease in production, then restrictions “also have a long cumulative effect,” especially if we are talking about industries using high technologies, analysts say.

According to the Department of the Central Bank, the level of the economy has already decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, and yet, despite the different dynamics in different sectors of the national economy, it remains stable.

Earlier, Topnews wrote that Moscow is preparing three possible responses to the West’s introduction of a ceiling on prices for Russian fuel.

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Uzbekistan rejected the idea of a gas union with Russia and Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan rejected the idea of a gas union with Russia and Kazakhstan

The corresponding statement was made by the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Zhorabek Mirzamakhmudov.

Vice-President and Head of the Ministry of Energy of Uzbekistan Zhorabek Mirzamakhmudov commented on the information about the conclusion of the triple gas union of his country with the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan.

In his opinion, even if such an agreement is signed, the document will not receive a political change.

At the same time, the union will be one of the commercial contracts.

Zhorabek Mirzamakhmudov confirmed the fact of negotiations on gas supplies between Moscow and Tashkent.

However, he stressed that this is not about the union, but about a technical agreement.

“We will never agree to political terms in exchange for gas”, – he added.

Recall that his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke about the relevant initiative of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the end of November, without specifying details.

However, he noted that Putin is going to discuss this topic with the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the route of gas supplies through Uzbekistan is very relevant.

Earlier, topNews wrote that Uzbekistan did not recognize the LDPR.

The relevant statement was made by the country’s authorities last March.

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Saxo Bank made a “shocking forecast” for 2023

Saxo Bank has made a shocking forecast for 2023

The publication stated that the economy will be on military rails, as in 1945.

Danish Saxo Bank has published a traditional forecast of global events that may occur in the world next year, 2023, and affect the financial markets of the planet.

Experts believe that we should not wait for a return to the pre-pandemic economy. The main theme of the year will be strengthening the security of countries and building up military capabilities. The world has entered the phase of the war economy, and the beginning of this was laid by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

According to Saxo Bank Investment Director Steen Jacobsen, the military mentality will be comparable to the situation in 1945, the appearance of the Armed Forces of Europe is likely. So, the EU authorities will decide to abandon reliance on US military support and decide to put their combat potential in order. The EU will spend about 10 trillion euros to create its own army by 2028.

The second forecast of analysts concerns the UK, whose economy is experiencing obvious problems, including high inflation, recession, and so on. Mass protests and the coming to power of the Labor Party are likely, followed by the rejection of Brexit.

In France, according to the following forecast by Saxo Bank, Emmanuel Macron may announce his resignation, after which both the left and the right together with Marine Le Pen may come to power. Macron, like Charles de Gaulle, may return to politics in the future.

The fourth forecast of Danish analysts concerns a project to search for new energy sources, which is initiated by “billionaire technophiles” and leading US technology companies. Against the background of the growth of energy carriers, they will be engaged in projects comparable to Manhattan, whose participants created an atomic bomb. Over $1 trillion will be spent on it.

Due to geopolitical risks and huge inflation, investors will prefer traditional sources of financing, which will lead to an increase in gold prices.

Next year, the cost of one ounce of precious metal will be up to $ 3,000, which is twice the current price.

Finally, the Danes predict the rejection of the fight against climate change against the background of the energy crisis, and, as a result, the decline of the meat production industry. By 2050, its output may be reduced from 70 kg per person per year to 24 kg.

Earlier, Topnews wrote that the scenario of the global financial crisis in 2023 was voiced by the Russian Central Bank.

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The expert told the Russians what length of service will reduce the pension

The expert told the Russians what length of service will reduce the pension

The lawyer explained which periods should not be taken into account in the seniority, so as not to receive less.

 

Lawyer, assistant of the Department of Labor and Social Law of St. Petersburg State University Fatima Nogailieva, in an interview with the media, explained that in some cases the pension may decrease due to seniority.

According to her words, the agency “Prime ”, the desire of Russians to specify as many billing periods as possible when making payments can lead to the opposite effect. The expert explained that the modern formula for calculating pensions does not take into account the length of service – the insurance part depends on the size of the individual pension coefficient.

In this regard, Nogailieva explained, it is necessary to take into account periods that may affect the amount of payments.  The first of them is the period of obtaining professional education. Previously, the legislation took into account the period of study in universities, colleges, postgraduate studies, doctoral studies and residency in the total length of service. And so far, those who have completed training before 2022 can include these years in the experience. But then the calculation of the pension will be carried out according to the previously valid rules.

She explained that the pension, which is calculated according to the old rules, is limited to the amount of 555.96 rubles. Because of this, the FIU, without asking pension recipients, does not include the educational period in the insurance experience. It is more beneficial for pensioners.

The second billing period – caring for a child until he reaches one and a half years. It is included in the total length of service of the insurance pension on special conditions. By law, a parent receives additional pension points per year – 1.8 for the firstborn, 3.6 for the second, 5.4 for the third and fourth. There is a condition: before the vacation, the parent had to work, and his activities were subject to insurance premiums.

When the pension is accrued, the points are converted into rubles. The price of points is set by the Government of the Russian Federation for a year. So during the period of raising a baby, you can get an increase to your pension, but this does not always happen.

According to the expert, if a parent’s vacation happened before 2022, then it is included in the total length of service. If the mother demands the accrual of pension points, she will get what she wants, but she will exclude one and a half years from the total length of service of the FIU. Nogailieva explained that in this case, the internship coefficient and the pension amount will decrease.

The third period with which Russians should be careful is working hours in the regions of the Far North and in areas equated to them in one and a half terms.

Until 2022, activities in these regions were included in the length of service in the ratio of – year of work – one and a half years of experience. But now, if you include “ northern experience ” in the general according to the old rules, then the pension will also be assigned according to them. And again, as in the case of the period of education, the pension will be less.

The expert explained that when calculating pension payments, all the rights of Russians are taken into account – and experience, and military service, and child care, and so on, but the calculation option that is most beneficial to the future pensioner is chosen.

Earlier, Topnews wrote that the State Duma proposed paying the 13th pension to old-age pensioners.

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Mass media: Moscow is preparing three possible responses to the introduction of a price ceiling by the West for Russian oil

Mass media: Moscow is preparing three possible responses to the introduction of a price ceiling by the West for Russian oil

Vedomosti claims three variants of the Russian response.

Russia can set its own fixed oil price rate. This is reported by Bloomberg, explaining that this may be Russia’s response to the price ceiling introduced by the G7.

Referring to its sources, the publication writes that either a fixed price for barrels from the Russian Federation is being considered, or the maximum level of discount to international brands with which they can be sold.

At the same time, whichever option is adopted, it will be regularly reviewed.

Insiders explained that Moscow intends to provide buyers with a transparent pricing mechanism that is based solely on market principles in order to avoid restrictions on the prices of the buyer countries.

It is unclear what the fixed level should be, the source confirmed. A presidential decree is being prepared, according to which both Russian companies and any oil-buying traders will not be able to sell fuel to the countries participating in the ceiling agreement.

At the same time, Vedomosti talks not about two, but about three variants of the Russian response to the West.

So, referring to sources close to the Cabinet of Ministers, the publication writes about the preparation of a presidential decree, which is now being coordinated with the Government of the Russian Federation.

According to the draft document, the first option is a complete ban on the sale of oil to G7 countries and other participants of restrictions. It is indicated that the ban can be introduced, including in the case of the purchase of raw materials not directly, but through intermediaries or a chain of intermediaries. For example, a neutral country will buy oil from the Russian Federation, but the final recipient will be a member of the G7.

The next option is a ban on exports under contracts containing a price ceiling as a condition, while which country it is will not play a role.

The last option is the launch of an indicative price. This means that the maximum discount of Russian Urals oil to the benchmark Brent grade will be determined. If the discount increases, then the sale of oil is prohibited. This is the least likely scheme, the insider of the publication stressed.

According to him, either one of the options or a combination of them can be accepted. The decree was discussed with the participation of oil companies on December 6, at a meeting of the president.

As Topnews wrote earlier, Western sanctions against Russian oil came into force on December 5. The EU will not accept oil from the Russian Federation via the sea route, the G7, Australia and the EU have limited prices for sea transportation of oil to $60 per barrel.

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The State Duma proposed to pay Russians the 13th pension

The State Duma proposed to pay Russians the 13th pension

The offer came from “Fair Russia”.

Representatives of Fair Russia have submitted to the State Duma a bill on the payment of an additional, 13th, annual old-age pension.

According to TASS, which has a document at its disposal, an additional pension will be paid in December of this year.

The explanatory note says that every recipient of an old-age insurance pension will receive payments.

According to the head of the party, Sergei Mironov, the very fact of payment is explained by the fact that the state is obliged to support socially vulnerable citizens – pensioners, and the timing is explained by the fact that before the holidays the population often borrows.

MFOs and banks lend money, although the incomes of elderly people are small.

“For obvious reasons, they are still considered attractive borrowers,” Mironov believes, explaining that the payment can “ save ” pensioners from rash loans.

The same document provides for a doubling of the fixed payment to the insurance part of the pension to those who have reached 70 years of age. Now the norm works for those who have overcome the 80th anniversary.

Earlier, Topnews wrote that Vladimir Putin on December 5 set the size of the Russian subsistence minimum for pensioners in the amount of 12,363 rubles. In addition, payments to non-working pensioners will be indexed by 4.8%.

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“Only a few degrees Celsius”: experts described a terrible scenario for Europe

“Only a few degrees Celsius”: experts have described a terrible scenario for Europe

According to experts, the weather is preparing terrible tests for Europeans because of the situation with the energy system.

Javier Blas, an analyst at the American edition of Bloomberg, predicts difficult times for Europeans.

According to him, residents of the Old World are now actively trying to convince that the peak of the energy crisis has already passed, explaining this by lowering gas prices from 340 to 135 euros per megawatt hour, filling gas storage facilities and the last warm autumn with a small consumption of blue fuel.

However, according to Blance, there are only a few degrees left before the realization of the most terrible scenario for Europe.

He recalled that Europe has yet to experience real frosts and days of windlessness, when alternative wind energy cannot be generated.

The problem is that energy markets are so tense that only a few degrees Celsius or a few windless days separate Europe, faced with blackouts, from having enough energy to survive the winter, the analyst notes.

In his publication, he points to a high probability of outages in France, Finland, Sweden and Ireland.

He cites the term of energy specialists in Germany Dunkelflaute, meaning a gloomy depression and a time with a small number of sunny and windy days.

And if Dunkelflaute happens, then a real catastrophe is expected in Europe.

The American analyst recalled that the subsidies allocated by the EU states will turn into taxes for the residents of the region, and he considers the reduction in energy prices to be a temporary phenomenon.

In addition, a new increase in fuel prices for Europe may be triggered by a cold winter in Asia.

He recalls that the authorities of Finland or France are already talking about a shortage of electricity and do not rule out rolling blackouts due to an increase in demand for electricity.

“Most likely, we will see a significant increase in demand, which will force hydropower producers to increase the cost of water and, consequently, lead to higher prices, ”, – Blas quotes Norwegian analyst Fabian Ronningen.

The High Commissioner for Europe’s Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrel, said earlier that he was waiting for a real storm due to rising energy prices and a slowdown in the economy.

The European official highlights the main trend of this winter – saving electricity.

Earlier, topNews wrote that riots and the overthrow of the authorities are predicted in Europe.

Such a scenario, according to experts, is possible due to the energy crisis.

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Restrictions of the West on Russian oil prices have come into force

Western restrictions on Russian oil prices have come into force

The EU embargo on Russian oil comes into force on December 5.

From December 5, 2022, the EU embargo on Russian oil, which is transported by tankers, comes into force.

The upper level of prices for sea supplies of black gold is also beginning to take effect.

Recall that Russia acted as the main supplier of oil to Europe. The needs of the Old World in this resource were covered by about 20%.

However, as a response to its own, the West has begun to develop restrictions that are aimed, among other things, at limiting Moscow’s income from oil supplies.

Last summer, the European Union adopted another package of sanctions, which says about the gradual introduction of an embargo on oil supplies from Russia by sea.

Recently, the EU, and then the G7 countries and Australia agreed on the marginal cost of buying oil from Russia at $60 per barrel.

The adjustment of this mark is allowed, and the first procedure is scheduled for mid-January, but the unanimous support of all EU members is needed to change prices.

At the same time, oil produced not in the Russian Federation and not owned by an individual or legal entity in the Russian Federation can be transported in transit through Russian territory above the price ceiling.

Commenting on the EU initiative, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that our country will not supply anything abroad if it contradicts Russia’s interests.

Earlier, topNews wrote that the Parliament of Kazakhstan called Russia an unreliable partner.

At the same time, the country’s authorities intend to redirect oil bypassing the Russian Federation.

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Media: foreign companies have banned branches in the Russian Federation from paying taxes to the Russian budget

Media:foreign companies have banned branches in the Russian Federation from paying taxes to the Russian budget

The heads of such firms face criminal liability.

A number of foreign companies that intend to liquidate their Russian branches have sent orders on non-payment of taxes in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation.

So, as RBC reports with reference to experts of Business solutions and technologies, there is a violation of the law by firms.

At the same time, the United States and a number of other Western countries agreed to tax payments of their companies to the Russian budget until March 2023, despite the anti-Russian sanctions of the administrations, including those directed at the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

As the media emphasizes, the heads of legal entities that are registered in the Russian Federation face criminal prosecution for non-payment of taxes.

The expert interviewed by RBC explained that foreign clients send numerous requests in which they are interested in the legislative consequences of refusing to file income declarations and paying mandatory payments to the state.

In response, representatives of branches of foreign firms were advised to resume the process of filing income documents in which to indicate the amount of taxes in the DRT.

So the Federal Tax Service will be able to collect taxes from the funds of infringing enterprises,

It is known that a number of countries reported on the freezing of Russian assets, including Switzerland, which made 7.5 billion local francs belonging to Russian legal entities and individuals ($7.95 billion) inaccessible.

Topnews wrote earlier that the European Committee even proposed to create a separate structure that would manage Russian assets.

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Aeroflot sells an elite fleet of top managers for 17 million rubles

«Aeroflot» sells an elite fleet of top managers for 17 million rubles

The airline’s revenues are falling.

It became known about the decision of Aeroflot to sell the elite fleet, which was used by top managers. The air carrier plans to receive more than 17 million rubles after the sale.

As the Telegram channel BAZA writes, there are 21 cars on sale from Aeroflot. They were used by department directors.

All the cars that turned up at the auction were Nissan cars of the 2010s.

The most expensive lot starts from 1.14 million rubles, the cheapest will cost from 740 thousand rubles and above.

According to insiders, Aeroflot decided to optimize costs, because after February 24, the number of flights decreased.

“In addition to lowering the comfort of top managers, a salary reduction is also waiting for them – as part of the same cost optimization,” BAZA reports.

By the way, the media write about the blocking of films and music on Aeroflot planes. The service will not be available on A320/321 and B737 aircraft – this is almost the entire fleet of the carrier.

It is known that streaming systems are unavailable “due to the refusal of foreign suppliers to provide this service.”

But Aeroflot itself explains that the restriction is temporary, and domestic systems are being introduced now.

As Topnews wrote earlier, an Aeroflot plane was detained in Sri Lanka in the summer after a lawsuit by a leasing company from Ireland, Celestial Aviation Trading Limited. The lessor demanded the vessel back.

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