Experts described unemployment scenarios in the country.
The Center for Strategic Research of the Russian Federation has issued a forecast according to which the number of jobs in Russia will be reduced by 2 million by the end of this year.
As a result, unemployment will not be the current 4.4%, but 7.1–7.8%. If acute consequences can be avoided, then it will grow only to 6.4–6.5%.
The CSR believes that the employment structure itself may change in the country. Cuts are expected in the automotive industry, metallurgy and construction. The need for light industry and IT industry workers will increase.
As Kommersant clarifies, experts name two scenarios for the development of events. Either unemployment will rise to 6.4–6.5% and will remain for the coming years, or due to job losses to 7.1-7.8% by December, but by the summer of next year the labor market will recover.
CSR believes that the second scenario is more likely, since many of the non-operating companies have retained staff.
The publication reports that the Russian Government has not yet announced its strategy, and has not given a GDP forecast for 2022. According to the head of the Ministry of Labor Anton Kotyakov, mass layoffs have not yet been registered.
We are talking about cuts of about 50,000 people, 14,000 on unpaid leave.
CSR predicts that the number of jobs will decrease in the automotive industry, household appliances, metallurgy, fertilizer production, construction and the sales market. The demand for workers will affect textile production, the IT sector, the production of clothing, leisure goods, the production of microelectronics and telecom equipment.
This demand will partially cover the closure of jobs, but it will require Russians to update their work skills.
The situation with unemployment will not affect the outflow of migrants, because the level of wages in Russia remains high for them compared to incomes at home. They also have no problems with transferring earnings abroad.
However, the experts’ forecast, according to Kommersant, may be affected by changes in labor legislation.
The publication reports that amendments to the Labor Code of the Russian Federation and the Federal Law “On Employment of the Population” are being prepared.
Earlier, Topnews wrote about which periods of unemployment are included in the length of service for pension accrual.