Analysts criticize the regulator for using not the most effective method.
The Central Bank of Russia announced the raising of the key rate to 9.5%. Information about this appeared on February 11 on the regulator’s website.
At the same time, the Central Bank has published a new inflation forecast, which will be 5-6% together with the previously predicted 4-4.5%.
The average key rate, according to information, will be up to 11% in 2022 (previously up to 8.3%). The indicators of forecasts for the next two years have also increased: in 2023 – up to 7.5-9%, 2024 – 5-6%.
Analysts Znak.com it is reported that the decision of the Central Bank led to the collapse of the Russian segment of the stock market. So, by noon on February 11, the Moscow Stock Exchange index fell by 3.66%, RTS – by 4.48%. Tinkoff, Sberbank, Gazprom and Magnit flew down.
Recall that the key rate is the annual interest rate at which the Central Bank gives loans to commercial banks and accepts deposits. With a low CS, the level of credit availability for the population is high. The growth may be justified by an attempt to contain ruble inflation.
The indicator has been increasing for the 8th time since March 2021. During this time, it has grown from 4.25% to 9.5%.
According to experts, such actions of the regulator do not help to cope with the inflation of the ruble. As a result, in February, the price increase may reach 9%. And this, in turn, will raise the interest on deposits and, in the future, will cause an increase in consumer demand.
At the same time, there is an extremely negative side for Russians.
“Such dynamics…. it will hit the mortgage market and, accordingly, the housing construction sector,” said expert “MK” Sergey Suverov (UK “Arikapital ”).
Artem Deev, an analyst at Amarkets, told the media that there are other ways to reduce the inflation rate of the ruble. So, he called the increase in the cost of fuel, utilities, imports, logistics, labor, taxes, excise duties and duties.
At the same time, the increase in the Central Bank will not allow the ruble to level off in a short time. It will take several months, against the backdrop of rising world import prices, fuel, housing and utilities tariffs, to slow down the ruble exchange rate.
“The more expensive money from the Central Bank for Russian banks, the more expensive loans and higher deposit rates”, – the analyst is sure.
So, in his opinion, loan rates will increase by 0.5-1%, mortgage interest will be 10-11%, car loans – 12-14%, consumer loans – 15-16%.
Analysts are confident that the Central Bank’s decision will not lead to a recession, but to a continuation of inflation growth, and a drop to 10% is possible already in the coming spring.
Only the banking sector will benefit from such a decision, which will be able to increase the turnover of loans and profits.
Earlier, Topnews wrote that the Central Bank proposed to introduce a total ban on cryptocurrency in Russia.